Protective and risk factors for condom use as an hiv preventive measure in men who have sex with men: development of a model

HIV continues to disproportionately affect key populations, such as MSM, who in Mexico have a 28 times higher risk of infection compared to other key populations and 44 times higher than the general population (CENSIDA, 2021). This vulnerability is due to the interaction of psychological, social and structural factors that interfere with preventive behaviors, such as condom use (Tobón & García, 2022).Objective: To evaluate the influence of protective psychological factors (HIV risk perception and sexual assertiveness) and risk factors (sexual sensation seeking and psychoactive substance use) on condom use as an HIV preventive measure in a sample of MSM in the state of Jalisco, Mexico.A quantitative study with a non-experimental-transversal design and predictive-exploratory scope was carried out with the participation of 247 MSM of legal age from Jalisco. A battery of instruments was used that included the HIV Risk Perception Scale, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Sexual Sensation Seeking Scale, the Alcohol and Drug Consumption subscale of the Questionnaire of Situational Influences for Sexual Behavior in MSM, and two items to measure consistency in condom use. Data were collected digitally, respecting ethical standards, and descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed.Consistent condom use was reported by 37.7% of participants. Moderate to high levels of HIV risk perception and sexual assertiveness, and low levels of sexual sensation seeking and substance use were observed. Condom use was positively correlated with risk perception and sexual assertiveness. The logistic regression model was significant (p < .001), showing that the higher the risk perception and assertiveness, the higher the probability of condom use, explaining between 21.6% and 29.5% of the variance.It is concluded that HIV risk perception and sexual assertiveness are key factors that positively influence consistent condom use in the MSM population. The predictive model demonstrates that as these factors increase, the likelihood of consistent condom use significantly increases, underscoring the importance of promoting educational strategies that strengthen HIV risk awareness and sexual assertiveness skills.