Agent-based modelling of beach visitation patterns: insights for sustainable coastal design and management

Abstract Coastal areas are complex socio-environmental systems, yet most models focus on biophysical processes, with few addressing social systems or their interaction with biophysical dynamics. This paper introduces an agent-based model (ABM) simulating beach visitor spatial behaviour, considering factors like landscape design and its impact on visitor distribution. We analyse how service and facility placement affects areas with high and low visitation intensity. Tailored for Dutch beaches created by mega-nourishments like the Sand Motor, the model’s modular design allows adaptation to other coastal areas. Qualitative calibration and validation against field data ensured realistic predictions of daily visitor numbers and representation of areas of high and low visitation intensity across the beach. We analysed model sensitivity by varying visitor activities and pathway preference probabilities, finding that pathway probabilities significantly influence visitor choices. The model was also applied to assess the impact of adding an entrance with access to a restaurant and car parking on visitor numbers, affected areas, and impact intensity. Scenario analysis, combined with its application to two case studies with different landscape layouts, highlights the model’s versatility as a valuable tool for designing beaches to effectively explore and manage visitation intensity and its effects on ecological systems, such as vegetation.