Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration tied to tropical Atlantic SST variability

Abstract Arctic sea ice has undergone significant changes and exhibited pronounced interannual variability in recent decades. This study investigates the link between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) during the boreal winter and spring. Employing comprehensive statistical analyses and numerical model simulations, we demonstrate that warming in the tropical Atlantic can induce an anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Atlantic, which further facilitates sea ice drift and cold air flow from the central Arctic to the BKS, thereby increasing the regional SIC. Numerical experiments conducted using the Community Earth System Model corroborate these findings, confirming the significant influence of tropical Atlantic warming on SIC in the BKS. These findings enhance our understanding of the factors influencing Arctic sea ice variability and have implications for improving predictions of Arctic sea ice changes, and their broader consequences for global climate patterns.