Electrifying choices: How electric bicycles impact on mode choice and CO2 emissions

This paper analyzes (i) the influence of electric bicycle (“e-bike”) ownership on transport mode choice and (ii) how a change in e-bike ownership affects carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Germany. Using longitudinal data from household surveys from 2016 to 2022, we first conduct a trip-level analysis with a mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL model) to estimate mode choice probabilities. The results show that the change in e-bike ownership significantly affects travel behavior, by increasing the likelihood of choosing an e-bike as means of transportation by 14.6 percentage points (p.p.), while correspondingly decreasing the likelihood of choosing other modes, especially conventional bicycles by 5.6 p.p., as well as car and public transportation by about 4 p.p. each. Second, by using observed changes in individual distances traveled and transport-mode-specific emissions values, we calculate net emissions savings per person after acquiring an e-bike. These savings amount to 526.9 kg CO 2 per person and year. • We study the impact of buying an e-bike on transport mode choice. • We run an MMNL model with panel data to estimate mode-choice behavior in Germany. • Buying an e-bike significantly changes travel behavior, notably for short distances. • Car and conventional bicycle trips are replaced mainly with e-bikes. • We show that owning an e-bike contributes to a reduction in CO 2 emissions.