Temperature variability and trend analysis in the high-altitude Gilgit River Basin: a statistical assessment using Mann-Kendall and Sens slope methods

This study analyses long-term temperature variations in the Gilgit River Basin, North Pakistan, using data from four meteorological stations (Gilgit, Gupis, Uskhor, and Yasin) over the period 1990–2022. The analysis employed the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator to detect and quantify temperature trends across different temporal scales and spatial locations within the basin. Results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in temperature patterns, with Gupis station showing a statistically significant increasing trend in mean maximum temperature (Sen's slope = 0.0316°C/year, p < 0.05) and Gilgit station exhibiting a significant increase in mean minimum temperature (Sen's slope = 0.0343°C/year, p < 0.01). Seasonal analysis identified pronounced warming trends during spring months (Sen's slope ranging from 0.0484 to 0.0807°C/year), while winter temperatures remained relatively stable. The spatial variability in temperature trends suggests that local factors, including topography and land use changes, play crucial roles in modulating climate change impacts within the basin. These findings have important implications for water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate change adaptation strategies in the region. The study contributes to our understanding of climate change impacts in high-mountain regions and provides valuable insights for policymakers and resource managers working in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region.