Glacier, Wetland, and Lagoon Dynamics in the Barroso Mountain Range, Atacama Desert: Past Trends and Future Projections Using CA-Markov

Glacial retreat is a major global challenge, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where glaciers serve as critical water sources. This research focuses on glacial retreat and its impact on land cover and land use changes (LULC) in the Barroso Mountain range, Tacna, Peru, which is a critical area for water resources in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. Employing advanced remote sensing techniques through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, we analyzed historical trends (1985–2022) using Landsat satellite imagery. A normalized index classification was carried out to generate LULC maps for the years 1986, 2001, 2012, and 2022. Future projections until 2042 were developed using Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modeling in QGIS, incorporating six predictive environmental variables. The resulting maps presented an overall accuracy (OA) greater than 83%. Historical analysis revealed a dramatic glacier reduction from 44.7 km2 in 1986 to 7.4 km2 in 2022. In contrast, wetlands expanded substantially from 5.70 km2 to 12.14 km2, indicating ecosystem shifts potentially driven by glacier meltwater availability. CA–Markov chain modeling projected further glacier loss to 3.07 km2 by 2042, while wetlands are expected to expand to 18.8 km2 and bodies of water will reach 4.63 km2. These future projections (with accuracies above 84%) underline urgent implications for water management, environmental sustainability, and climate adaptation strategies, particularly with regard to downstream hydrological risks and ecosystem resilience.