Mathematical Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Lane-Changing Vehicle Behavior Decisions

Lane changing is a crucial scenario in traffic environments, and accurately recognizing and predicting lane-changing behavior is essential for ensuring the safety of both autonomous vehicles and drivers. Through considering the multi-vehicle information interaction characteristics in lane-changing behavior for vehicles and the impact of driver experience needs on lane-changing decisions, this paper proposes a lane-changing model for vehicles to achieve safe and comfortable driving. Firstly, a lane-changing intention recognition model incorporating interaction effects was established to obtain the initial lane-changing intention probability of the vehicles. Secondly, by accounting for individual driving styles, a lane-changing behavior decision model was constructed based on a Gaussian mixture hidden Markov model (GMM-HMM) along with a parameter estimation method. The initial lane-changing intention probability serves as the input for the decision model, and the final lane-changing decision is made by comparing the probabilities of lane-changing and non-lane-changing scenarios. Finally, the model was validated using real-world data from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset, with empirical results demonstrating its high accuracy in recognizing and predicting lane-changing behavior. This study provides a robust framework for enhancing lane-changing decision making in complex traffic environments.