Mapping fine-scale distribution of the northern pika Ochotona hyperborea considering duality in microhabitat thermal conditions

Species distributions are frequently modeled using predictors that exceed the spatial scale experienced by the focal species. Incorporating fine-scale environmental conditions is therefore expected to lead to more realistic model predictions. However, the importance of the existing local heterogeneity on species distribution remains poorly assessed although species can effectively utilize multiple microhabitats for behavioral adaptation to withstand climate change impacts. Here, we developed a fine-resolution species distribution model based on ambient air conditions for the northern pika ( Ochotona hyperborea ), a small lagomorph found in rocky landforms, in Hokkaido, Japan, to first understand the improvement in the model performance from the conventional coarse-resolution model. We then assessed how model predictions alter by incorporating the rock-interstice microclimates that are found in their habitats for the baseline (1981–2010) and future periods (2041–2100). The fine-resolution model performed better and overall predicted lower habitat suitability across the study area than the coarse-resolution model. Incorporation of rock-interstice microclimate increased the habitat suitability markedly relative to predictions based on ambient thermal conditions, which resulted in predicting more suitable areas in lower (hotter) elevations and more areas remaining suitable into the future. This result suggests that the northern pika may withstand the negative impacts from rising ambient temperatures by effectively utilizing rock interstices via behavioral adaptation. Our findings highlight the importance of analyzing species distribution at fine scales and considering local environmental heterogeneity, which helps species mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, for conservation under climate change. Species use a wide variety of microhabitats and experience thermal conditions existing locally. In the northern pika ( Ochotona hyperborea ), the fine-resolution species distribution model performed better than the coarse-resolution model. Complex topographical features that locally buffer ambient thermal conditions were predicted to increase habitat suitability and enable species persistence in the future. Local environmental heterogeneity that helps species mitigate climate change impact will be important for conservation.