Climate Extremes and Protests in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, 1995–2013

Abstract Scientists have shown a relationship between climate conditions and social unrest, specifically related to temperature and precipitation trends. Though deviations from historically normative patterns are becoming more pronounced, it remains unclear how or to what extent they might be linked to protests. Similarly, we know little about the extent to which the relationships between local climate anomalies and protests are contemporaneous versus lagged. To address these questions, we examine correlates of local protest levels between 1995 and 2013 in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Our innovative methodology involves modeling geocoded, media-reported protests (derived from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System) at 0.5° × 0.5° geospatial resolution, using unobtrusive, satellite-derived data on temperature and precipitation patterns and historical deviations. We also integrate comparable satellite data on nightlight pollution. Properties of our outcome variable require negative binomial regression analysis. We find that net of controls gauging local and country-level social, political, and economic dynamics, temperatures, and precipitation are related to protests in unexpected ways: In any given year and location, protests are strongly, positively associated with heavy precipitation and with higher temperature levels. Protests are also strongly, positively associated with historical deviations in climate patterns, especially anomalies related to both wetness and dryness. Such historically aberrant precipitation has pronounced curvilinear, lagged effects on protest levels. We situate these complex findings using classic, structurally based arguments grounded in social science theory. Significance Statement This study examines the connection between local climate conditions and protests in South Asia over time (1995–2013). South Asia is home to India, the world’s most populous country. As a region, it is highly vulnerable to climate change and the way it affects people and societies. We find that high temperatures and heavy rainfall associated with “bad weather” partly explain local protest levels. However, when and where protests occur also reflects historically abnormal temperatures and the presence/absence of rainfall, which points to the links between climate extremes and social instability, especially in the long term. The innovative data sources we use help improve both social science and climate science modeling. Future work should examine if these protest patterns exist globally.