Artificial Intelligence Assisted Decision-Making in Current and Future Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

The 2024 Emergency Watchlist Report highlighting the International Rescue Committee's (IRC) assessment of the 20 countries at greatest risk of new humanitarian emergencies is critical for all in the greater humanitarian response community. 1It addresses where emergency efforts are best focused now and in the future.The data, gained from a rigorous analytical process, utilized quantitative and qualitative variables from more than 50 countries.The report has assisted IRC and others in the broader humanitarian community "to determine where to focus emergency preparedness efforts, and what can be done to reduce the impact on affected communities."Furthermore.the report confers that the number of people in humanitarian need increased fourfold between 2023 and 2024, with their lives often in extreme danger, and high levels of insecurity and poverty in eight of the top 10 African countries.A new and significant concern for many in the broader humanitarian community is the rising threat of both pandemics as well as major climate change risks.Since the 2020 outbreak of COVID-19, posing new threats and difficulties globally 2 , the humanitarian agencies and their deployed humanitarian teams have faced "unparalleled challenges" in fragile and conflict-ridden states.This confirms the differences between disasters and pandemics.The former impacts isolated areas or countries and the response is directed locally.In contrast, pandemic impacts are global, necessitating a global approach. 3The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) published 2 reports highlighting the increasing risk humanitarian workers face, first due to perceptions of being carriers of COVID-19 and secondly, the increase in "sophisticated disinformation tactics in fragile and conflict-ridden states" that negatively impact their strategic and operational efforts and team security. 4,5These issues have led to research efforts that attempt to better understand and manage the new "virtual space that surrounds humanitarian operations" in which NGOs face "real threats for future humanitarian operations."These include training on: "understanding the operational environment, communications technology and its impact on humanitarian programs, and using communications technology for security risk management." 6Many of these needs were never considered requirements for humanitarian workers until the COVID-19 and other pandemic risks emerged, requiring new and innovative training programs.Content from just 1 example includes: "both government and rebel groups denying NGOs access to populations in need, corrupt officials or warlords demanding payoffs, and local violence threatening the safety and even the lives of field personnel." 6Such training needs were never considered critical until post-COVID-19, other epidemic and pandemic risks, and climate change catastrophes became a daily reminder. 7,8,9he composition of humanitarian response teams deployed to climate change and pandemic crises has not been adequately addressed.Admitting that the COVID-19 pandemic was a crisis unlike any other in recent times, one of the earliest to address this challenge chose "five leadership practices that can respond effectively" and help pandemic management and recovery. 10Leadership qualities include the promotion of rapid problem solving and execution under high stress, chaotic conditions, leaders must organize a multidisciplinary network of teams, united by a common collaborative purpose that includes an "integrated 'nerve center'" that focuses on "workforce protection, supply-chain stabilization, customer engagement, and financial stress testing."Secondly, the teams must be prepared to temporarily shift some responsibilities from the command-and-control element to a network of teams.They emphasize both leadership characteristics as well as the ability to unify teams.Additionally, making decisions amid uncertainty and the ability to wait for a decision until a full set of facts emerge is crucial as is demonstrating sincere empathy as leaders. 11Equally crucial is the recognition that the disaster response community increasingly agrees that future crisis management must be multidisciplinary, transdisciplinary, and cross-disciplinary in the decisions and choices made by professional responders.This is no easy task but no less a critical one. 12