Analysis of the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Grassland Fire Susceptibility and Influencing Factors in Qinghai Province

Grassland fires represent a significant natural disaster affecting global grassland ecosystems, posing serious threats to ecological safety, livestock production, and the lives and property of herders. This study focuses on Qinghai Province, utilizing historical grassland fire data to pre-screen the factors influencing both natural and anthropogenic grassland fires. By applying the maximum entropy model and analyzing data from 150 fire incidents, this research predicts the spatial distribution of grassland fire susceptibility within the study area. The outcomes were as follows. (1) A maximum entropy–Kvamme gain statistical model was developed and validated for reliability. (2) The natural grassland fire-prone areas are predominantly located in southern Qinghai, covering a vast portion of the Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, as well as Zeku County, Henan Mongolian Autonomous County, Yushu City, and Mado County in the Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. These regions are distinguished by their proximity to rivers and the presence of abundant vegetation. In contrast, grassland areas prone to anthropogenic fires are mainly concentrated in eastern Qinghai Province, where human activities are more intensive and population centers are located nearby. (3) The prediction results identify dominant grassland fire factors and their thresholds. (4) Natural grassland fires in Qinghai Province primarily result from spontaneous combustion, while anthropogenic grassland fires are primarily caused by electrical faults from high-voltage power lines, heating activities related to grazing, and the use of firecrackers. This study presents a disaster prediction model to support grassland management and fire prevention in Qinghai Province, providing a scientific basis for effective fire control strategies.