Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Abstract Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region‐specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea‐ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem‐based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea‐ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth s Future
Published
2025-03-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004849
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.32
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article

Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Simeon L. Hill, Clive R. McMahon, Patrick Eskuche‐Keith, Daniele Bianchi et al.
3 citations
Earth s Future
Climate variability and models
3.32
article

Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Simeon L. Hill, Clive R. McMahon, Patrick Eskuche‐Keith, Daniele Bianchi, Olivier Maury, Jason D. Everett, Katherine B. Baker, Vivitskaia Tulloch, Julia G. Mason, Marta Coll, Colleen M. Petrik, Pearse Buchanan, Camilla Novaglio, Devi Veytia, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Romain Forestier, Rowan Trebilco, Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros, Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes, Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Ryan Heneghan, Sophie Bestley, Julia L. Blanchard, Kieran Murphy, Eugene J. Murphy, David B. Green, Anthony James Richardson, Samik Datta, Tyler Weaver Rohr, Paul Spence, Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz, Denisse Fierro‐Arcos, Roshni C. Subramaniam, Cheryl S. Harrison, Stuart Corney, Jeroen Steenbeek, Matthew H. Pinkerton, Scott Spillias, Philip W. Boyd, Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais, Camila Cataldo‐Mendez, Ilaria Stollberg
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Abstract Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region‐specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea‐ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem‐based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea‐ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Earth s FutureVol. 13(3)
University of Essex (GB), Louisiana State University (US), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Environmental Defense Fund (US), Dalhousie University (CA), Memorial University of Newfoundland (CA), British Antarctic Survey (GB), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA), Australian Antarctic Division (AU), Australian Research Council (AU), Natural Environment Research Council (GB), University of British Columbia (CA), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Ifremer (FR), University of Cape Town (ZA), University of California, Los Angeles (US), The University of Queensland (AU), North Pacific Marine Science Organization (CA), UNSW Sydney (AU), University of California San Diego (US), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Centre for Marine Socioecology (AU), Ecopath International Initiative (ES), Sydney Institute of Marine Science (AU), Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (FR), Fondation Pour la Recherche Sur la Biodiversité (FR), Institut de Ciències del Mar (ES), Impact (CA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), L'Institut Agro (FR), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NZ)
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Climate variability and models
3.32
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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