Coordination between flood prevention capacity and urbanization under climate change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

ABSTRACT Under the impact of increasingly uncertain climate change, flood prevention capacity (FPC) in the process of urbanization has attracted more attention. Therefore, this study constructed a framework to explore the coordination relationship between FPC and urbanization from a coupling and decoupling perspective. Using panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2000 to 2022, the indicator system was constructed. The coupling coordination model and Tapio decoupling model were used to analyze the coordination between urbanization and FPC. Spatial Markov chains and Dagum Gini coefficients were used to characterize the dynamic evolution and regional differences in the coupling coordination. The main barrier factors were also investigated using the barrier degree model. The results show that the level of urbanization in the YREB is fluctuating and increasing overall, and the downstream areas have stronger FPC. The coupling coordination degree is unbalanced, with a gradual increase from west to east. Inter-regional differences are the main source limiting their coordinated development. The subsystem of FPC influences 71.11% of barriers. The decoupling state has not yet significantly improved from 2000 to 2022, mainly including strong decoupling, strong negative decoupling and expansive negative decoupling.