The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries
Abstract The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio‐economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio‐economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio‐cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic‐demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug‐in‐model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social‐ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.
Authors
- Edward H. Allison (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4663-1396)
- Nicolas Barrier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1693-4719)
- Hans Sloterdijk (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8243-2100)
- Yunne‐Jai Shin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7259-9265)
- Olivier Maury (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7999-9982)
- Camilla Novaglio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3681-1377)
- Liam Campling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5872-0295)
- T. Bahri
- Elizabeth A. Fulton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5904-7917)
- Vicky W. Y. Lam (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1931-0514)
- Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2511-5448)
- U. Rashid Sumaila (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1851-1621)
- Derek P. Tittensor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9550-3123)
- Tyler D. Eddy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2833-9407)
- Ryan Heneghan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7626-1248)
- Julia L. Blanchard (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0532-4824)
- Jonathan Rault (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-5880-9028)
- Katja Frieler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4869-3013)
- Hermann Lotze‐Campen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-5508)
- Patrice Guillotreau (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3083-1230)
- David Leclère (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509)
- Dale Squires (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0545-2650)
- Bas van Ruijven (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892)
- Alex Tidd (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8165-9699)
- Jacob Schewe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9455-4159)
- Matthieu Lengaigne (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0044-036X)
- William W. L. Cheung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9998-0384)
Institutions
- Griffith University (AU)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- Memorial University of Newfoundland (CA)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA)
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Ifremer (FR)
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- Queen Mary University of London (GB)
- University of the Sunshine Coast (AU)
- London School of Business and Management (GB)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Centre for Marine Socioecology (AU)
- Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Lancaster University (GB)
- WorldFish (MY)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Earth s Future
- Published
- 2025-03-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004851
- Citations
- 6
- Primary Topic
- Marine and fisheries research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 6.63
Funders
- European Commission
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada