Improved Estimates of Regional Rice Yield Responses to Elevated CO<sub>2</sub> by Considering Sub‐Species Discrepancies
Abstract Increased rice yields due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), known as the CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE), is one of several important factors sustaining global food security. However, model projections on future rice yields are still largely uncertain, partly owing to the lack of how CFE varies between rice species. Here, through synthesis of hundreds of field observations, we found the experimental evidence of a 12.8 ± 0.8% yield increase per 100 ppm CO 2 increase for Indica, but only about a half for Japonica (6.3 ± 0.5 %). After accounting for differences in sub‐species, crop model projections showed substantial regional discrepancies of CFE, which are not captured by original models. More importantly, the spatial and temporal variations of rice yield were projected more accurately after considering this sub‐species difference. Together, these results suggest strong influences of genotype on rice yield responses to CO 2 and highlight the need for crop models to consider genotypes for improving projections of global crop yield.
Authors
- Yanfeng Ding (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7747-8956)
- Josep Peñuelas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7215-0150)
- Songhan Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8867-8486)
- Yu Jiang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4821-3585)
- Kees Jan van Groenigen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9165-3925)
- Yunlong Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2699-626X)
- Xuhui Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0818-9816)
- Christoph Müller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550)
- Lian Song (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4644-2704)
Institutions
- Nanjing Agricultural University (CN)
- Peking University (CN)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES)
- Institute of Soil Science (CN)
- Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences
- Published
- 2025-03-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jg008438
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.75
Funders
- Fundación Ramón Areces
- China Association for Science and Technology
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province
- Jiangsu Association for Science and Technology
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities