Game Analysis of Green Technology Innovation Ecosystem Evolution at Carbon Peaking

Green technological innovation is an essential pathway for transforming extensive production methods characterized by “high energy and high emissions”, achieving corporate green transformation, and ascending the value chain. Adhering to the scientific principles of energy conservation, emission reduction, and low-carbon development, this study, set against the backdrop of carbon peak, constructs a green technological innovation ecosystem comprising government, enterprises, and consumers. It analyzes the evolutionary processes of each stakeholder and the system under different scenarios, further simulating the impact of various factors on system equilibrium through numerical simulations. The research reveals that proactive government regulation can guide enterprises toward green technological innovation and the development of low-carbon production; an increase in consumers’ green preferences helps to expand the green consumer market and stimulates enterprises’ willingness to innovate greenly; and the initial strong willingness of each stakeholder significantly influences the system’s evolutionary path. Based on evolutionary game theory, this paper enriches the theory of green technological innovation ecosystems and provides references for overcoming barriers such as the difficulty in expanding the green consumer market and the premium pricing of green products during the green consumption process.