Using microdata as a basis for long term projections of hospital care spending: the added value of more detailed information

We found time trends in both hospital care usage and APHS in most disease groups. Incorporating these trends into cost projections for various disease groups results in more conservative estimates of future hospital spending compared to merely using demographic projections of per capita costs and adjusting them for observed historical growth. The use of microdata for component-based modelling has benefits but also downsides. A positive side of using microlevel data is that individuals could be followed over multiple years, a downside was the vast amount of computing power and time needed to perform these extensive analyses. Our results could support policy makers to adjust for hospital (staffing) capacity not purely on demographic changes but also based on observed trends in the use of specific types of hospital care, per disease.