Impact of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns: Empirical evidence from India

The interplay between stock market performance and economic risk is a central concern in financial economics, as macroeconomic variables have a considerable impact on investment decisions and stock pricing. This relationship is particularly critical for bank stocks, as their performance is a key indicator of a country’s financial health. While extensive research has explored bank stock returns in developed economies, there exists a significant gap in understanding this dynamic within developing countries like India, particularly amid macroeconomic fluctuations underscored by the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the substantial investments in bank stocks by Indian investors, this study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on Indian bank stock returns. The study employs quarterly data from 2013–14 to 2022–23, with macroeconomic data sourced from the CMIE Economic Outlook and bank stock returns data obtained from the Bloomberg database. Using an Ordinary Least Squares regression model, the findings reveal that interest rate (β = 0.3069), inflation (β = 0.1644), GDP (β = 0.1928) and COVID-19 (β = 0.5737) exert significant positive effects on bank stock returns, while the exchange rate (β = –0.7440) has a substantial negative impact. The results highlight the sensitivity of bank stock returns to macroeconomic volatilities, with the pronounced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic further highlighting the effects of economic crises. The findings emphasize the need for incorporating these factors into the bank stock returns model, offering valuable insights for investors, banks, and financial regulators. AcknowledgmentAleena Joseph is a recipient of the Indian Council of Social Science Research Doctoral Fellowship. The article is largely an outcome of the doctoral work sponsored by ICSSR. However, the responsibility for the facts stated, opinions expressed, and the conclusions drawn is entirely that of the authors.