Immigration, government type, and social welfare spending

Abstract Previous research identifies the effects of immigration on social welfare from different perspectives. However, existing studies have not thoroughly explored how political institutions shape the nexus between immigration and the welfare state. This study argues that the types of government condition immigration's welfare effects. By restraining the policy influence of anti‐immigration sentiment and sharing the responsibility for expanded welfare spending across the government as a whole, coalition and minority governments tend to spend more on welfare when facing increased immigration than single‐party majority governments. Using time‐series cross‐sectional data between 1980 and 2019 from 28 advanced countries, this study finds that the increase in immigration inflow has an ambiguous relationship to social welfare expenditures. However, this relationship is substantially influenced by government types. Immigration under coalition and minority governments has a larger positive effect on welfare spending than under single‐party majority governments.