Research on the Impact of Low-Carbon Pilot Policies on the Upgrading of China’s Urban Industrial Structure

The construction of low-carbon cities in China represents a profound socio-economic transformation. This study investigates whether the implementation of low-carbon city pilot projects facilitates industrial structure adjustment. Utilizing panel data from 297 prefecture-level cities spanning 2001 to 2020, this research treats the low-carbon city pilots as a quasi-natural experiment to examine their impact on industrial structure upgrading and the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that low-carbon city initiatives positively contribute to the optimization of the industrial structure but have a limited effect on its rationalization. Mechanism analysis reveals that green technological innovation driven by pilot projects plays a crucial role in promoting industrial structure upgrading. Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of low-carbon city pilots is more pronounced in central and western regions compared to the eastern region, with no significant effect observed across all three regions collectively. This study offers valuable insights for integrating low-carbon city development with industrial structure upgrading.