Impact of COVID-19 Waves and Lockdowns on Emergency Department Visits and Intensive Care Unit Admissions: A Retrospective Analysis

Aim: This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department (ED) utilization and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in Turkey, focusing on changes in non-COVID-19 visits during curfew periods. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on ED and ICU admission data from a tertiary care hospital in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were categorized into COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 cases and stratified based on curfew periods. Advanced statistical methods, including Bayesian Structural Time Series modeling, were used to evaluate trends in healthcare utilization and assess the reliability of findings. Results: Non-COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits significantly decreased during the pandemic (p=0.00075), with the most notable reductions during lockdowns (p=0.00084). In the first lockdown, ICU admissions increased significantly (p=0.00029), while COVID-19 ED visits remained unchanged (p=0.09358). During the second lockdown, COVID-19 ED visits rose (p=0.000001), non-COVID-19 visits decreased (p=0.00019), and ICU admissions showed a non-significant numerical decline (p=0.10771). These findings indicate shifts in healthcare utilization and critical care demands during the pandemic. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered healthcare utilization patterns, reducing non-COVID-19 ED visits without affecting ICU admission rates. These findings underscore the need for robust public health strategies, including improved triage systems and public education, to optimize healthcare delivery during crises. Further research is warranted to assess the long-term implications of delayed care for non-COVID-19 conditions.