Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Chhattisgarh Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5: A DSSAT-based Study

Climate change is a critical factor influencing global agriculture, particularly wheat production, which is highly sensitive to temperature and precipitation variations. This study examines the projected impact of future climate scenarios (2030-31, 2050-51 and 2070-71) on wheat yield across different growing environments in the wheat-growing districts of Chhattisgarh. The results reveal that the highest yield decline is observed in Mungeli district (-8.5%) in 2030-31, (-11.5%) in 2050-51 and Balodabazar district (-13.8%) in 2070-71 under RCP 4.5. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, the highest yield reductions were recorded in Raigarh and Mungeli districts (-10.3%) in 2030-31, Bilaspur district (-16.0%) in 2050-51 and Mungeli district (-21.3%) in 2070-71. Conversely, Kabirdham and Bemetara districts exhibited the lowest reductions in yield across different years and scenarios.