Different Responses of Two Endangered Sister Tree Species to Climate Change: A Comparison Between Island and Continental Populations in Tropical Asia

ABSTRACT Climate change is widely recognized as a major threat to biodiversity and a critical factor contributing to the decline in species and populations. However, it remains uncertain whether species from continental and island environments, especially endangered ones, will respond similarly or differently to climate change. The strategies employed by these species to cope with climate change, and the corresponding conservation management approaches, remain poorly understood. In this study, we employed ecological niche models to project future shifts in the distribution patterns of two endangered sister species, Trigonobalanus doichangensis and T. vericillata , which are distributed across continental and island regions of tropical Asia. We analyzed potential changes in their distribution under four different climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s. Our results indicate that temperature is a significant driver for the continental species T. doichangensis , whereas precipitation predominantly influences the island species T. vericillata . Moreover, we found that the potential future distribution range of the continental species T. doichangensis is likely to exceed that of the island species T. vericillata , suggesting that the continental species T. doichangensis may have a stronger capacity for adapting to climate change. We recommend that conservation areas be established to maintain habitat stability in regions most affected by climate change. A comprehensive assessment of the endangered status of both species is also essential. Overall, this study underscores the distinct responses of island and continental species to climate change, thereby enhancing our understanding of their adaptive strategies and informing targeted conservation efforts.