Impact of Sanctions on the Structure of Transborder Trade of the Far Eastern Federal Distric

The historically determined features of the economy of the Russian Far East have made it objectively the most vulnerable macroregion of Russia to external pressure. This study evaluates the impact of Western sanctions on the sectoral and geographic structure of trade of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) in 2010–2023. The author relies on both quantitative data, including trade statistics of Russia and its counterparties, and expert estimates. The research methodology is a comparative historical approach, which involves comparing the stages of the formation of the Western sanctions policy and the structural evolution of Far Eastern trade. In 2014–2016, the impact of the sanctions policy on the trade of the FEFD was highly intense and shocking. It led to a drop in exports and imports for most of the FEFD’s main commodity items and reduced the volume of its trade with most of its key counterparties. However, the second wave of sanctions, which began in 2022, caused significantly less damage to Far Eastern trade: this time it was unable to undermine the microregion’s fuel and fish exports and cause a decline in its trade with the same wide range of countries that it covered in 2014–2016. This was a consequence of the growing contradictions in the sanction’s coalition, the smoothing out of the psychological effect of sanctions, and the high counter-sanction activity of the Russian government. The main negative result of sanctions for the FEFD at present is the increased dependence on China, which in 2022 accounted for more than a third of the district’s exports and over half of its imports.