Public Perceptions of Climate Variability and its Impact on Meningitis Outbreaks in Kano State, Nigeria

Weather patterns and their variations pose one of the biggest threats to public health worldwide, particularly in third-world nations like Nigeria. Higher temperature and dust conditions, for instance, increase the rate at which meningitis occurs. This study evaluated the effect of meteorological factors on the meningitis outbreak in Kano State. A questionnaire was used to collect data on respondents' perceptions. Archival data for temperature, rainfall and Cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) data was also obtained for quantitative analysis. A total of seven hundred and eighty-four (784) questionnaires were distributed. The questionnaires were analysed using descriptive statistics, and charts were used to display the findings. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and spatial autocorrelation were performed on the raw data in ArcGIS 10.8. Findings from OLS revealed that an increase in temperature by 1 unit resulted in to increase in CSM by 8.68, 0.12, and 3.7 during hot/dry, warm/wet, and cold/dry seasons, respectively. It also shows a negative relationship between rainfall and CSM, whereby an increase in rainfall by 1 unit may lead to a decrease in the outbreak of the disease by 0.12 and 0.001 during hot/dry and warm/wet seasons, respectively. The study's meningitis outbreak is known to 86.4% of the respondents. Further research revealed that, respectively, 38.3% and 34.6% strongly agreed and agreed with the assertion that a rise in temperature raises the local risk of contracting meningitis. Just 8.9% strongly agreed that there is a definite correlation between increased rainfall and the high incidence of meningitis in Kano State. Based on these, the study concluded that increasing temperature without proper adaptation and mitigation processes will result in a higher occurrence of CSM in Kano State. There is a direct association between temperature and meningitis outbreaks in Kano State. Hence, strategies such as reducing congestion and planting of trees should be increased.