Spatio-Temporal Influences of Urban Land Cover Changes on Thermal-Based Environmental Criticality and Its Prediction Using CA-ANN Model over Kolkata (India)

Rapid urbanization and the consequent alteration in land use and land cover (LULC) significantly change the natural landscape and adversely affect hydrological cycles, biological systems, and various ecosystem services, especially in the developing world. Thus, it is vital to study the environmental conditions of a region to mitigate the negative impacts of urbanization. Out of a wide array of parameters, the Environmental Criticality Index (ECI), a relatively new concept, was used in this study, which was conducted over the Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA). It was derived using Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to quantify heat-related impact. An increase in the percentage of land area under high ECI categories, from 23.93% in 2000 to 32.37% in 2020, indicated a progressive increase in criticality. The Spatio-temporal Thermal-based Environmental Criticality Consistency Index (STTECCI) and hotspot analysis identified the urban and industrial areas in KMA as criticality hotspots, consistently recording higher ECI. The correlation analysis between ECI and LULC features revealed that there exists a negative correlation between ECI and natural vegetation and agriculture, while built-up areas and ECI are positively correlated. Bare lands, despite being positively correlated with ECI, have an insignificant relationship with it. Also, the designed built-up index extracted the built-up areas with an accuracy of 89.5% (kappa = 0.78). The future scenario of ECI in KMA was predicted using Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) with an accuracy level above 90%. The percentage of land area under low ECI categories is expected to decline from 50.02% in 2000 to 35.6% in 2040, while the percentage of land area under high ECI categories is expected to increase from 23.93% in 2000 to 36.56% in 2040. This study can contribute towards the development of tailored management strategies that foster sustainable growth, resilience, and alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals, ensuring a balance between economic development and environmental preservation.