SubgroupTE: Advancing Treatment Effect Estimation with Subgroup Identification

Precise estimation of treatment effects is crucial for accurately evaluating the intervention. While deep learning models have exhibited promising performance in learning counterfactual representations for treatment effect estimation (TEE), a major limitation in most of these models is that they often overlook the diversity of treatment effects across potential subgroups that have varying treatment effects and characteristics, treating the entire population as a homogeneous group. This limitation restricts the ability to precisely estimate treatment effects and provide targeted treatment recommendations. In this paper, we propose a novel treatment effect estimation model, named SubgroupTE, which incorporates subgroup identification in TEE. SubgroupTE identifies heterogeneous subgroups with different responses and more precisely estimates treatment effects by considering subgroup-specific treatment effects in the estimation process. In addition, we introduce an expectation-maximization (EM)-based training process that iteratively optimizes estimation and subgrouping networks to improve both estimation and subgroup identification. Comprehensive experiments on the synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the outstanding performance of SubgroupTE compared to the existing works for treatment effect estimation and subgrouping models. Additionally, a real-world study demonstrates the capabilities of SubgroupTE in enhancing targeted treatment recommendations for patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) by incorporating subgroup identification with treatment effect estimation.