Risk Assessment of Satellite Constellations Using Network Theory

The increasing satellite population in low Earth orbit heightens collision risks and challenges the traditional space situational awareness methods. These methods, typically focused on binary interactions, do not fully capture the complexities of satellite constellation dynamics, especially for smaller objects. This study introduces an innovative satellite constellation safety assessment approach that integrates the collision probability algorithm DilutionMaxPc with complex network analysis. We applied this methodology to actual satellite data and simulated constellation configurations, including objects smaller than 10 cm. This demonstrates its capability to pinpoint critical network nodes and potential collision pathways. Our results indicate that this approach effectively combines intricate interactions and long- term orbital dynamics. It utilizes network centrality metrics alongside collision probabilities, providing a robust framework to enhance the accuracy and resilience of satellite constellation safety assessments.