Stochastic optimization model for port infrastructure planning considering uncertainties in wave and vessel arrival times

This paper proposes a stochastic optimization model that considers not only the uncertainties in wave and vessel arrival times but also sedimentation and tidal occurrence. Those factors impact the vessel’s operational cost, influencing the seaport’s competitiveness. Therefore, seaport operators need to decide the reference vessel size, dredging maintenance actions, and infrastructure required to ensure the smooth operation of the vessel. The optimization model is solved by invoking a variant of the genetic algorithm. Case studies based on actual seaports in Indonesia are conducted to illustrate the model’s application and results clearly. It was found that uncertainty of wave and vessel arrival are responsible for deviations in expected operational costs, while increasing infrastructure costs minimizes these deviations and reduces the expected operational costs.