Shifting burdens: how delayed decarbonisation of road transport affects other sectoral emission reductions

Abstract In 2022, fuel combustion in road transport accounted for approximately 21% (760 million tonnes) of CO 2 emissions in the European Union (EU). Transport is the only sector with rising emissions, with an increase of 24% compared to 1990. The EU initially aimed to ban new CO 2 -emitting cars by 2030 but has since delayed this target to 2035, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the push for rapid decarbonisation. The pace of decarbonisation in this sector will either ease or intensify the pressure on other sectors to stay within the EU’s carbon budget. This paper explores the effects of speeding up or slowing down the transition in road transport. We reveal that a slower decarbonisation path not only drives up system costs by 126 billion €/a (6%) but also demands more than a doubling of the CO 2 price from 137 to 290 €/t <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> </mml:mrow> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> in 2030 to trigger decarbonisation in other sectors. On the flip side, accelerating the shift to cleaner transport proves to be the most cost-effective strategy, giving room for more gradual changes in the heating and industrial sectors, while reducing the reliance on carbon removal in later years. Earlier mandates than currently envisaged by the EU can avoid stranded assets and save up to 43 billion €/a compared to current policies.