Sustainable Path Analysis of Urban Agglomerations Based on the Spatial Spillover Effect on Air Pollution

ABSTRACT Rapid socioeconomic developments take the price of prominent environmental pollution problems, which necessitate a delicate equilibrium between urban development and environmental protection through governments’ scientific planning. This study delves into the sustainable trajectory for urban agglomerations, focusing on the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in China. Employing the STIRPAT model and Conley–Ligon model, it assesses the impact of socioeconomic factors on environmental pollution and their spillover effects. The study incorporates three distinct developmental scenarios designed to simulate regional economic growth and environmental protection. Our findings reveal a substantial influence of local socioeconomic development and spatial spillover effects from neighboring counties within the BTH region on local PM 2.5 concentration. Economic development level and environmental governance expenditure emerge as pivotal factors affecting the increase and decrease of PM 2.5 concentration, with spillover effects observed in neighboring counties. The effectiveness of balancing air pollution and the economy is better under the Zoning Cooperated scenario than under the local Government Planning scenario and trend extrapolation scenario. This means that more than 96% of the 100 million people in the counties will live in areas with clean air. In light of these findings, the research proposes pertinent policy recommendations, offering a novel and efficacious solution for urban agglomerations in rapidly developing countries or regions worldwide grappling with the intricate trade‐off between air pollution and economic development.