Application of bayesian approach for determining the reliability of the navigation complex

The paper discusses the methodology based on the Bayesian approach to the assessment of posterior probabilities of various hypotheses regarding the reliability of technical system elements. The problem of estimating posterior probabilities of failures for a system with two nodes is considered. Mathematical modeling of Bayesian probabilities of hypotheses depending on the probabilities of trouble-free operation of each node was carried out. The modeling results were visualized and it was shown that the posteriori probabilities of the hypotheses significantly exceed the a priori ones. This allows you to use them as more accurate for calculating the probabilities of future events