Decomposition of Carbon Emission Drivers and Carbon Peak Forecast for Three Major Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Spanning China’s eastern, central, and western regions, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is a pivotal area for economic growth and carbon emissions, with its three major urban agglomerations serving as key hubs along the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Understanding the driving factors of carbon emissions and simulating carbon peak scenarios in these regions are critical for informing low-carbon development strategies across China’s diverse geographical zones. This study employs Grey Relational Analysis to identify key drivers and applies the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to quantify the contributions of various factors to carbon emissions from 2005 to 2021. Furthermore, the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model is utilized to project future emission trends under multiple scenarios. The results indicate that (1) the growth rate of carbon emissions in the three urban agglomerations has generally decelerated during the study period; (2) the influence of driving factors varies significantly across regions, with economic development, urbanization, and population size positively correlating with carbon emissions, while energy structure and energy intensity exhibit mitigating effects; and (3) tailored emission reduction strategies for each urban agglomeration—namely, the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRD), the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (TCC), and the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCA)—can enable all three to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. These findings provide a robust foundation for region-specific policy-making to support China’s carbon neutrality goals.