Development and validation of risk prediction models for permanent hypocalcemia after total thyroidectomy in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

Hypocalcemia is a common complication and can be permanent in patients following total thyroidectomy (TT). The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with permanent hypocalcemia and to develop a validated risk prediction model for permanent hypocalcemia to assist surgeons in the appropriate follow-up of high-risk patients regarding supplemental therapy. We included data of 92 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) undergoing TT who were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to a training set (n = 65) and validation set (n = 27). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed significant correlations of permanent hypocalcemia with parathyroid hormone (PTH) at postoperative month 1 (IM PTH), IM calcium (Ca), and IM phosphorus (P). These variables were constructed two models. Model 1 used the three indicators listed above; model 2 also included tumor, node, metastasis staging. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the areas under the curve (AUC) for models 1 and 2 were high for both the training set (0.905/0.913) and the validation set (0.894/0.800). Calibration curves showed good agreement between the incidence of permanent hypocalcemia estimated using the predictive models and the actual incidence. Model 1 may be more concise and convenient for clinical use.