Pricing and calibration in the 4-factor path-dependent volatility model

We consider the path-dependent volatility (PDV) model of Guyon and Lekeufack (2023), where the instantaneous volatility is a linear combination of a weighted sum of past returns and the square root of a weighted sum of past squared returns. We discuss the influence of an additional parameter that unlocks enough volatility on the upside to reproduce the implied volatility smiles of S&P 500 and VIX options. This PDV model, motivated by empirical studies, comes with computational challenges, especially in relation to VIX options pricing and calibration. We propose an accurate pathwise neural network approximation of the VIX which leverages on the Markovianity of the 4-factor version of the model. The VIX is learned pathwise as a function of the Markovian factors and the model parameters. We use this approximation to tackle the joint calibration of S&P 500 and VIX options, quickly sample VIX paths, and price derivatives that jointly depend on S&P 500 and VIX. As an interesting aside, we also show that this time-homogeneous, low-parametric, Markovian PDV model is able to fit the whole surface of S&P 500 implied volatilities remarkably well.

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Publication Details

Journal
Quantitative Finance
Published
2025-03-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2025.2472892
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
13.25

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article

Pricing and calibration in the 4-factor path-dependent volatility model

Guido Gazzani, Julien Guyon
7 citations
Quantitative Finance
Stochastic processes and financial applications
13.25
article

Pricing and calibration in the 4-factor path-dependent volatility model

Guido Gazzani, Julien Guyon
article en
7 citations

Abstract

We consider the path-dependent volatility (PDV) model of Guyon and Lekeufack (2023), where the instantaneous volatility is a linear combination of a weighted sum of past returns and the square root of a weighted sum of past squared returns. We discuss the influence of an additional parameter that unlocks enough volatility on the upside to reproduce the implied volatility smiles of S&P 500 and VIX options. This PDV model, motivated by empirical studies, comes with computational challenges, especially in relation to VIX options pricing and calibration. We propose an accurate pathwise neural network approximation of the VIX which leverages on the Markovianity of the 4-factor version of the model. The VIX is learned pathwise as a function of the Markovian factors and the model parameters. We use this approximation to tackle the joint calibration of S&P 500 and VIX options, quickly sample VIX paths, and price derivatives that jointly depend on S&P 500 and VIX. As an interesting aside, we also show that this time-homogeneous, low-parametric, Markovian PDV model is able to fit the whole surface of S&P 500 implied volatilities remarkably well.

Quantitative FinanceVol. 25(3)
University of Verona (IT)
BNP Paribas Cardif, Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires Étrangères
Gender equality
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Stochastic processes and financial applications
13.25
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