Decarbonization of Thai cement industry: a retrospective and prospective decomposition analysis

Abstract Cement production in Thailand significantly contributes to urban and infrastructure development, is a major energy consumer, and generates substantial greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines the energy intensity and CO 2 emissions intensity in the Thai cement industry during 2010–2019 and provides forecasts for 2019–2030. The logarithmic divisia index method for decomposition analysis identified key drivers of changes in energy intensity and CO 2 emissions intensity. Results show that energy intensity increased by 16.41 PJ from 2010 to 2015, followed by a negligible rise of 0.19 PJ from 2015 to 2019. Projections indicate a decrease of 1.14 PJ between 2020 and 2025 and a modest increase of 0.71 PJ from 2025 to 2030. Similarly, CO 2 emissions intensity grew by 1.08 Mt CO 2 from 2010 to 2015, then declined by 0.84 Mt CO 2 between 2015 and 2019. Future reductions of 0.92 Mt CO 2 between 2020 and 2025 and 0.83 Mt CO 2 between 2025 and 2030 are projected. Advanced energy-efficient technologies, such as efficient kilns, waste heat recovery systems, and improved milling techniques, can significantly reduce energy intensity. At the same time, supplementary cementitious materials like fly ash, blast furnace slag, and pozzolans can decrease the clinker-to-cement ratio and reduce CO 2 emissions. This study helps to identify specific factors that, if implemented, could contribute to improved energy consumption and reduced CO 2 emissions from the cement industry in Thailand.