Climate Change as a Double-Edged Sword: Exploring the Potential of Environmental Recovery to Foster Stability in Darfur, Sudan

The Darfur conflict, which emerged in the early 21st century, represents a multifaceted crisis driven by socio-political and environmental factors, with resource scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, playing a pivotal role in intensifying tensions between agricultural and pastoral communities. While climate change is typically associated with adverse environmental outcomes, an analysis of data spanning four decades (1980–2023) reveals a contrasting trend of increased precipitation, enhanced vegetation, and decreased drought frequency in recent years. This research explores the potential of these positive environmental changes to mitigate resource-based conflicts and foster political stability in Darfur as improved environmental conditions are posited to create a foundation for conflict resolution and sustainable peacebuilding. The present study integrates trends in the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine these shifts. EVI data, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at a 250 m resolution, was used to assess large-scale vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid landscapes. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast future precipitation scenarios up to the year 2034, enhancing the understanding of long-term climatic trends. Data processing and analysis utilized advanced tools, including Google Earth Engine (GEE), ArcGIS Pro (version 3.4), and R software (version 4.3.2). The findings reveal a significant (33.19%) improvement in natural vegetation cover between 2000 and 2023, with degraded and unchanged areas accounting for 1.95% and 64.86%, respectively. This finding aligns with a marked increase in annual precipitation and a reduction in drought intensity over the study period. Historical SPEI analysis showed persistent drought events between 1980 and 2012, followed by a notable decline in drought frequency and severity from 2013 to 2024. Precipitation projections suggest a stable trend, potentially supporting further vegetation recovery in the region. These environmental improvements are preliminarily linked to climate-change-induced increases in precipitation and reductions in drought severity. This study’s findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of the interplay between environmental dynamics and socio-political stability in Darfur, offering actionable insights for policy interventions aimed at fostering sustainable peace and resilience in the region.