Media Influence and Spatial Voting: The Role of Perceived Party Positions

Abstract If media outlets influence voters, media elites could hold disproportionate sway over elections. However, little is known about the paths through which these outlets influence voting behavior. Based on spatial voting theory, I argue that ideological media exposure alters two key mediators — ideological positions and perceptions of party positions — to influence voting behavior. The literature on media effects often assumes that the former is the mediator and ignores the latter. This study examines the effects of ideological media exposure on these two potential mediators and on voting behavior. However, it is difficult to study these relationships because audiences usually select like-minded media content, which introduces reverse causality. To address this endogeneity, I use a quasi-experiment: Liverpool’s longstanding boycott of the popular right-wing British tabloid newspaper, The Sun . This was an exogenous boycott that was not caused by political factors. Rather, it was due to The Sun falsely blaming the 1989 Hillsborough Disaster on Liverpool Football Club supporters. I estimate triple differences for the effect of this boycott on lower working-class respondents (who complied with the boycott much more than others) in Liverpool. The results indicate that media outlets influence ideological positions, perceptions of party positions, and, ultimately, voting behavior. The effect of media on perceived party positions appears to be particularly powerful and may indicate that it is an important mediator. Thus, this study provides timely and relevant insights about the specific ways in which media outlets influence elections.