Research on the Influencing Factors of College Students’ Willingness-to-Pay for Carbon Offsets in the Context of Climate Change

Integrating the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the norm activation model (NAM), this study investigated the formation mechanism of university students’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for carbon offsets under climate change. Through a survey of 2728 students across 28 universities in Yunnan Province, China, we developed an extended TPB-NAM framework incorporating carbon offset cognition (COC), climate change hazard perception (CCHP), and climate change awareness (CCA). Key findings revealed the following. (1) The integrated model explained 74.8% of WTP variance (R2 = 0.748), with behavioral attitude (β = 0.467, p < 0.001), subjective norms (β = 0.297, p < 0.001), and COC (β = 0.087, p < 0.001) emerging as primary direct predictors. (2) PN exerted the strongest indirect effect via ATP (β = 0.223, p < 0.001), while full mediation occurred between AC and WTP through ATP/PN. (3) Counterintuitively, CCHP demonstrated significant negative impacts (β = −0.027, p < 0.01), revealing nonlinear risk perception–behavior relationships. This research pioneers the application of TPB-NAM synthesis in carbon offset studies, proposing a tripartite intervention framework (“value identity–social norms–cognitive drive”) for campus carbon neutrality policies. The results advance voluntary carbon market mechanisms through theoretical integration and contextualized behavioral insights.