Tourism product life cycle dynamics: a computational approach to identifying tourism stages in Italy and Greece

An adaptation of the tourist area life cycle model is used to computationally identify each stage of the tourism product life cycle to explain the dynamics of tourist arrivals to Italy and Greece. It was found that the first stage of the cycle started considerably earlier in Italy than in Greece, well before WWII, while in Greece, it started during the 1950s. A new life cycle began in Greece in 2012. Italy is still in the consolidation stage and has shown growth; and this stage will continue until 2044. However, if suitable policies are applied in terms of investments in infrastructure and human capital and in marketing, this cycle can be interrupted, and a new cycle could begin directly from the development stage, where the growth rates of the number of tourist arrivals are exponential. Investing and providing services in alternative tourism may lead to this result.