Climate Variability Impact on Agricultural Production in Morocco: New Evidence From

This paper examines the impact of climate variability on agricultural production in 12 Moroccan regions, differentiating between rain-fed and irrigated crops. Using a spatial panel data model over 1999-2019, we analyze the impact of climatic and economic variables on three main crops: cereals, market gardening and rosaceous plants, while taking into account spatial autocorrelation and regional heterogeneity. The results highlight the sensitivity of various crops to variations in temperature and precipitation, revealing significant spillover effects due to omitted variables or shocks not observed in a spatial pattern. Thus, rainfall has a positive impact on rain-fed cereals but a negative impact on irrigated crops, underlining the inefficiencies of irrigation techniques and the need for sustainable water management. Irrigated rosaceae crops show high temperature sensitivity, underlining the urgency of climate-resilient agricultural practices. This finding underscores the urgent need for targeted regional public policies rather than standardized national policies to mitigate the effects of climate variability on Moroccan agriculture and ensure its long-term sustainability.