Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance

Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea, to evaluate its current distribution and determine predictors of relative abundance. Two random forest models were trained to predict relative abundance using either satellite data or the prokaryotic community. The models indicated that, besides temperature and salinity, both chlorophyll-a and surface currents likely played a role in relative V. vulnificus abundance and that non-vulnificus Vibrio spp. and Pseudoaltermonas spp. were bacterial predictors of V. vulnificus . Collectively, this indicates decaying phytoplankton blooms stimulate V. vulnificus relative abundance. A poleward trend could accelerate due to climate change-induced modifications of phytoplankton dynamics and currents; factors that should be integrated into predictive modelling to estimate future risks.