Energy Demand Forecasting to Assure Food Security from Agricultural Sector of Niger

The objective of this work is to estimate the future energy needs of the agricultural sector in two key areas: fuel consumption and the specific use of electricity for operating agricultural machinery. Meeting these energy needs could significantly enhance agricultural production by improving the availability, accessibility, and utilization of food products. Ultimately, this would contribute to ensuring food security in Niger by 2035. The Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) is used for the simulation. Four scenarios have been defined for this study: the reference scenario, the ambitious scenario, the modest scenario, and the target scenario. The results of the target scenario are as follows: 30.96 MWyr for total energy demand, 26.54 MWyr for fuel energy demand and 4.42 MWyr for electrical energy demand. The ambitious scenario presents a total energy demand of 26.92 MWyr, including 23.07 MWyr for fuel energy demand and 3.84 MWyr for electricity energy demand in 2035. The reference scenario records a total energy demand of 23.37 MWyr, including 19.97 MWyr for fuel energy demand and 3.51 MWyr for electricity energy demand in 2035. The modest scenario presents a total energy demand of 17.85 MWyr, including 15.97 MWyr for fuel energy demand and 1.88 MWyr for electricity energy demand in 2035. With the results of the target scenario set, the study's objective will be achieved by 2035, provided that efforts are made on the massive use of agricultural machinery, on increasing production under irrigation, on reversing the current process of soil degradation, and on developing irrigated cereals (corn, rice, wheat).