Not all trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services are created equal: assessing their spatio-temporal variation in response to land cover change in the Colombian Andes

Abstract Recent increases in societal demands for ecosystems have caused significant shifts in vegetation, land use, and ecological dynamics, particularly in sensitive mountain regions with strong environmental gradients like the tropical Andes, where environmental change is occurring rapidly, altering crucial services related to water and soil, including hydrological regulation and erosion control. These changes affect ecosystem functions at different time scales, and the effects can vary through space. However, most studies focus on individual services and rarely assess how these services interact across different spatial and temporal scales. By applying a disaggregated spatio-temporal approach, we investigate synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services under various land-use transition scenarios in the tropical Andes. Focusing on a strategic watershed in the central Andes of Colombia, we analyzed 22-years of land cover change and tested transitions between three hypothetical land cover scenarios: scenario 1—natural, scenario 2—pastures, and scenario 3—crops. The results show that while hydrological flows remained stable due to consistent land cover, hypothetical scenarios highlight the significant impact of vegetation cover on hydrological regulation, soil erosion, and their interactions. Our spatial analysis reveals 81 distinct land transition types, leading to synergies and trade-offs between services depending on environmental factors. Notably, the same transition may produce either a synergy or a trade-off depending on contextual variables. This approach offers a novel method for analyzing ecosystem service dynamics over space and time, providing valuable insights for targeted land management and conservation planning. These findings highlight the importance of understanding these dynamics for effective decision-making in critical ecosystems.