Evaluating the impacts of humanitarian crises on sustainable tourism with a futures studies approach

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected border markets, especially those reliant on tourism, with significant social and economic consequences. This research explores the impact of the pandemic on the sustainability of tourism in Javanrood, Iran, a border region heavily dependent on tourism, and identifies key coping strategies used by the local community. While existing literature primarily focuses on general tourism trends, this study examines the unique challenges faced by border markets, offering insights into the social and economic dimensions of tourism sustainability. Data were collected from 150 members of the local community and 30 local experts using structured questionnaires. The results reveal a dramatic decline in the sustainability of 14 tourism-related social and economic variables during the pandemic. Notably, approximately 75% of the local community’s responses were ineffective, with social media marketing and the production of COVID-19-related health equipment emerging as the most prominent strategies. Local elites highlighted government support, medical infrastructure development, and employee activity diversification as the most critical strategies for sustaining tourism during crises. The study’s findings underscore the importance of proactive crisis management and the need for adaptable strategies to ensure the resilience of border market tourism. By offering actionable recommendations, such as increasing government aid, improving healthcare infrastructure, and promoting alternative tourism sectors, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers and local stakeholders. The research contributes to the literature on sustainable tourism by incorporating a crisis-response perspective and provides frameworks for enhancing tourism resilience in border regions globally.