Robust species-optima estimates from non-uniformly sampled environmental gradients

Abstract Abundance-weighted averaging is a simple and common method for estimating taxon preferences (optima) for phosphorus (P) and other environmental drivers of freshwater-ecosystem health. These optima can then be used to develop transfer functions to infer current and/or past environmental conditions of aquatic ecosystems in water-quality assessments and/or paleolimnological studies. However, estimates of species’ environmental preferences are influenced by the sample distribution and length of environmental gradients, which can differ between datasets used to develop and apply a transfer function. Here, we introduce a subsampling method to ensure a uniform and comparable distribution of samples along a P gradient in two similar ecosystems: the Everglades Protection Areas (EPA) and Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY) in South Florida, USA. Diatom optima were estimated for both wetlands using weighted averaging of untransformed and log-transformed periphyton mat total phosphorus (mat TP) values from the original datasets. We compared these estimates to those derived from random subsets of the original datasets. These subsets, referred to as “SUD” datasets, were created to ensure a uniform distribution of mat TP values along the gradient (both untransformed and log-transformed). We found that diatom assemblages in BICY and EPA were similar, dominated by taxa indicating oligotrophic conditions, and strongly influenced by P gradients. However, the original BICY datasets contained more samples with elevated mat TP concentrations than the EPA datasets, introducing a mathematical bias and resulting in a higher abundance of taxa with high mat TP optima in BICY. The weighted averaged mat TP optima of BICY and EPA taxa were positively correlated across all four dataset types, with taxa optima of SUD datasets exhibiting higher correlations than in the original datasets. Equalizing the mat TP sample distribution in the two datasets confirmed consistent mat TP estimates for diatom taxa between the two wetland complexes and improved transfer-function performance. Our findings suggest that diatom environmental preferences may be more reliable across regional scales than previously suggested and support the application of models developed in one region to another nearby region if environmental gradient lengths are equalized and data distribution along gradients is uniform.