Effect of hit rate and cognitive style on Bayesian reasoning: evidence from eye movements

While psychological research has established both probability information and cognitive style as key factors in Bayesian reasoning, their interactive effects remain underexplored. We conducted an eye-tracking experiment with 52 undergraduates using EyeLink II to examine how hit rate variations and field dependence/independence influence reasoning patterns during classic Bayesian tasks. Results revealed significant hit rate × cognitive style interactions across multiple eye-tracking measures (total/average fixation durations, area-specific dwell time, fixation proportion). The attention prioritization followed the order: hit rate > false alarm rate > base rate, though base rate information retained measurable influence. High hit rates amplified field-dependent participants' base rate neglect, while field-independent individuals maintained stable attention allocation across conditions. Field-independent reasoners demonstrated superior concentration and more efficient cognitive resource allocation, employing systematic information-processing strategies. These findings clarify the cognitive hierarchy of probability weighting in Bayesian reasoning while validating the critical moderating role of individual differences in information processing styles.