Perceptions of China Among American Elites: Sources and Change 1979–2022

Abstract This study examines and traces the evolution of U.S. elites’ views of China from 1979 to 2022, as revealed in the pages of Foreign Affairs , long a window into the thinking of the U.S. foreign policy establishment. Specifically, this study identifies and seeks to explain variation, over time, in (1) the perceived importance or “attention intensity” devoted to China; (2) the perceived salience of key issues in the U.S.-China relationship; (3) the level of distrust toward China; and (4) beliefs about the prevalence of hostility vs. friendliness and the likelihood of achieving political goals in the context of U.S.-China relations (the first two philosophical beliefs in the operational codes scheme). In addition, we engage in some preliminary exploration of the causes and effects of these beliefs and perceptions.