Macroregional dynamic analysis of economic growth and carbon emissions using spline modeling (case study of Russia and the USA)

Relevance. In many macro-regions of the world, a decrease in the carbon intensity of production has been observed in recent years, but in absolute terms, global carbon emissions have not decreased. This requires an indepth scientific analysis. The purpose is developing a methodological approach for conducting a macro-regional dynamic analysis of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions based on spline modeling tools and testing it on materials from Russia and the USA. Objectives: Analyze the general relationship between economic development and carbon emissions; develop an economic and mathematical approach for macro-regional dynamic analysis of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions; test this approach on materials from Russia and the USA; identify macro-regional features of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions and explain them. Methodology. The methods of monographic and retrospective analysis, methods of comparing economic and environmental phenomena and processes, methods of quantitative economic and mathematical analysis and spline modeling were used. Results. The article tests a new method for economic science of interpolating data using cubic splines. The accuracy of the constructed model allows us to turn to the dynamic analysis of trends - fluctuations in the growth rate in times of crisis. The method is based on the method of analytical description of speed, well-known in classical mathematics - differentiation of the model constructed by spline interpolation. In the article, the transformation of the relationship between the rate of GDP growth and carbon emissions is studied using the example of Russia and the USA using speed curves. Conclusions. It has been established that carbon emission trends may differ significantly across different macroregions. The dynamic analysis conducted in the article revealed differences in carbon emission fluctuations occurring against the backdrop of accelerating or decelerating GDP growth in countries with different levels of development. The GDP growth trend in Russia and the United States slowed down or showed a decline during crises. It was under the influence of crises that the correlation between GDP production trends and carbon emissions could change.