Modelagem e previsão dos preços de tilápia em diferentes regiões do Brasil: uma análise com modelo Arima

This study aims to analyze and forecast tilapia prices in different regions of Brazil (Grandes Lagos, Northern Paraná, and Western Paraná) using the Arima (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. The research uses historical data from August 2021 to November 2024, provided by Cepea/Esalq. The Arima model is adjusted for each region, considering stationarity tests, parameter selection (p, d, q), and price forecasts for 2025. The methodology includes stationarity tests, analysis of variance (Anova) to compare regional price averages, and decomposition of time series to identify seasonal patterns and trends. Arima models forecast tilapia prices for the upcoming months, with 95% confidence intervals. The results show a moderate upward trend in prices across all regions for 2025, with slight regional differences. This study highlights the influence of factors such as seasonality, production costs, and market demand on price fluctuations, offering valuable insights for producers and decision-makers in the fishing industry